Sheep Heading Into The Valley Again

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Rx. Senior
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New England and Philadelphia Fans weren't the only people with sore heads from celebrating Monday morning, small bookmakers across The World have sobered up from seeing the initial Super-Bowl line and are now on their knees praying thanks to the bookmaking Gods.

Being the defenceless, unfortunate specimens they are,( I know, I used to be one) big Finals in any Sport is a double-edged sword, in comes the big wedge but at what cost. Invariably they are at the mercy of the big guns, who make the lines for a multitude of reasons which may not reflect the reality of the situation. The biggest fear would have been, although reasonable, the big boys opened up NE-3,3.5. leaving the minnows with one horse books. Now all is calm and a balanced, profit making Final can be had.

I have experienced through years of Bookmaking that situations like this are as rare as visual Comets and bring out every Thief in the District since the last good thing. The incredible fact I always found but could not explain, using this game as an example, was that if New England opened -3, nobody came out of the woodwork.

As I have said before, The Jewish Bookmakers in London call them sufferers and no matter how good a thing they think New England are, -3 gives them a pain in the nuts which can only be remedied by the comfort of -7. No joking, any small bookie will tell you, you can smell them in the air long before they surface. All I am saying is, New England punters are not only taking a mugs price, but will have every hard-luck story merchant in the gambling World on their backs.
 

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Win: That was a well written post, but I don't understand your conclusion. Are you saying that the line should be -3, but that would scare bettors into thinking it's a trap. That the bettors feel more comfortable with -7.

ESQAJM
 

Rx. Senior
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ESQAJM,

As you remember,and I hope with relish, in the Conference play-offs, I predicted a line of NE-3 for the Super-bowl, you and others, who I give plenty kudos predicted a higher line, and you were right. :103631605

Regardless of your or my opinion on the outcome of the game, which I personally think New England will probably cover, I have been in Bookmaking all my life and just know when (smell) all the so called Thieves are coming out. Although I live in Ireland, I keep in touch with the London Bookmaking fraternity on a daily basis and they have confirmed, the sufferers are coming out of the woodwork.

On another note, I find the people in the Sportsbook Forum quite clickly. Being 5 hours ahead of stateside means 5 hours more drinking and while owning up to posting nonsense at such times, I feel some of them are complete wasters, drunk or sober. I posted that I had information about a local Horse, Leading Run, the Trainer who is very successful, thinks is best he has had in his career, and one of the best to come out of Ireland in recent Years. However, this was greeted with the usual derision which makes people wonder why they bother.

Best of luck for the bowl,

ESQAJM, your a slippery one:thumbsup:
 

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Win: I remember that you predicted NE-3 and I picked about -7, but I was kind enough not to remind you about it.

My big problem right now is that I am sitting on a huge bet (for me) of NE-5.5 for the SB which I made before the conference finals. I intend to middle this bet. I could do it now by buying 1/2 point and take Phil +7.5. Are you predicting that the line will rise as the "sufferers" come out? I'm a little nervous due to the TO situation. If Reid says that he definitely will play in the SB, it might drop the line to 6.5. What are your thoughts on this?

ESQAJM
 

Rx. Senior
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ESQAJM,

All I can relay is that on the exchanges, which I have found to be a good yardstick, both Teams are getting solid support at 1.85 in the 6.5 and 7.5 markets. Not only does this tell me the 7 is strong, but it is also means a good figure for the Books to trade in, moving off that would only complicate the situation. The lean on the M/L is slightly towards New England, so the chances are the price on Philly in the +7.5 market will get better.

Just remember, this advice is coming from someone who thought the line would be 3.
 

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